Self-fulfilling prophecy: A reality or a myth?

Self-fulfilling prophecy – a term coined by Robert K. Merton, has its roots deeply planted in the field of sociology. Nevertheless, it is a phenomenon that we all would have experienced at some point in our lives. Let me make it simple for you. Remember that famous SRK dialogue from his movie titled Om Shanti Om, in which he says – “agar kisi cheez ko dil se chaaho, toh poori kaaynaat usey tumse milaane ki koshish mein lag jaati hai”? This phrase summarizes the entire concept of self-fulfilling prophecy. Precisely the same message was conveyed by Paulo Coelho in his book called ‘The Alchemist’, when he quoted – “When you really want something, the entire universe conspires in helping you to achieve it.”

In literal terms, a self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that causes itself to become true due to a positive feedback that exists between our beliefs and our behavior. Our attitudes play an important role in shaping up the outcomes that we are going to see in the future. If we possess the faith and confidence in our dreams and we re-iterate them over and over, we are increasing the probability of our dreams turning into reality. On the other hand, with every negative emotion, we tend to pull ourselves away from achieving that dream. Behavioral finance is one of the emerging fields in finance that seeks to combine cognitive psychological theories with the conventional finance to determine irrational decisions that people take. It has been extensively seen that the sentiments of the investors have an important role in deciding whether a market is going to be bullish or bearish. Why else do you think that share prices of a company surge up as soon as there is positive news about that company in the market? Studies have shown that rising optimism that prevails in the financial market about any company is one of the key factors that contribute to a rise in share prices of that company. On the other hand, it has often been seen that the companies that are nearing a bankruptcy tend to become bankrupt much sooner than they would have predicted!

In 2006, a documentary named ‘The Secret’ and a companion book with the same name by Rhonda Byrne created a sensation in the media all around the world. Despite facing huge criticism over some of its elements, it postulated a new hypothesis – The Law of Attraction. This law advocated one simple thought which is “Like attracts Like”. This belief is based upon an idea that our thoughts are made up of pure energy and the energy that we feel now is the energy that we are attracting for our future. Despite a lack of considerable scientific evidence supporting the law of attraction, there are quite a few phenomena which have striking resemblance to the theories stated in the law. One such phenomenon is termed as the Placebo effect. Coined in early 18^th century, the term placebo is used to describe a medicine that is adapted more to please than to benefit the patient. The efficacy of this effect was investigated by demonstrating that the results from a dummy remedy were as useful as from the alleged remedy, as long as the patient believed that the remedy, he was being given, was real. All that the physicians used to do was to praise the dummy remedy’s efficacy in front of the patient and they started noticing positive changes with each dummy medication. Now the scientists know that the placebo effect is related to the perceptions and expectations of the patients. If a substance it viewed as helpful, it can heal. On the contrary, if a substance is viewed as harmful, it can cause negative effects (known as the Nocebo effect).  It has been hypothesized that placebo effects are produced by the self-fulfilling effects of response expectancies.            

Yet another phenomenon that is quite often correlated with self-fulfilling prophecy is the Pygmalion effect. In contrast to the phenomena discussed till where, where the behavior and the outcomes were found linked to one’s own positive beliefs, the Pygmalion effect is based on beliefs of the followers in their leader and vice-versa.  The idea behind this effect is that increasing the leader’s expectations and firm belief in the followers’ abilities result in better performance by the followers. The same is true for the perceptions about the leader in the followers’ minds. According to the Greek mythology, Pygmalion was a sculpture who fell in love with the statue of a lady that he had carved. The affection he had for that realistic statue was so powerful that the beautiful woman was subsequently brought to life!

The Pygmalion effect and application of self-fulfilling prophecies can be very well seen in practice in the modern organizations. Research has revealed that the expectations of managers from their subordinates have a direct impact on the performances of the subordinates. If managers’ expectations are high, productivity is likely to be excellent. If the expectations are low, the productivity is likely to be poor. Moreover, the way the managers treat their subordinates is a direct reflection of what they expect from them. It is impossible to mask the negative emotions of the low expectations. Even if the managers decide not to communicate their feelings, they unintentionally tend to convey those low expectations in a more effective way than a direct tongue-lashing. This is because saying nothing or being cold and uncommunicative is usually a sign that the manager is displeased by a subordinate or believes that the subordinate is hopeless. Hence, such indifferent treatment communicates low expectations and leads to poor performance. However, it is also important that the expectations of the managers must pass the test of reality before they can be translated into performance. This is because the subordinates will not be motivated to reach high levels of productivity unless they consider the boss’s expectations to be achievable.

This brings us to the very fundamental question that we started this article with – Is the concept of self-fulfilling prophecies a reality? Well, by now, you must have realized that the answer to this lies in your own beliefs. If you firmly believe that it is a reality, and you start developing a positive self-belief in yourself, then it will definitely do wonders in your life. I would like to end this article with an inspirational quote by Mr. Henry Ford that summarizes the entire article – “Whether you think you can or whether you think you can’t, you are right!”

Fostering Harmony, Subduing Hatred

Amid the political powers constantly seeking to broaden their vote banks, the media channels relentlessly running the TRP race and the extremist groups unceasingly trying to prove their supremacy over others, there exists a large chunk of people in India who are still at peace with themselves as well as with their surroundings. These people are neither ignorant nor indifferent to the events that are happening around them. They too live in the age of information and social media. Then why is it that they find the political and social environment around them to be conducive, while some of their peers are often found complaining about how intolerable and insecure the world has all of a sudden become? In this post, I wish to advocate for this chunk of people. 

India has long been known to assimilate different cultures, faiths, religions and ethnicities. For centuries, they all have co-existed and co-prospered. Undeniably, there have been some tensions and conflicts of interests between such diverse groups due to the differences in their belief systems. However, the overall environment has been amiable. The advent of social media and evolution of traditional media from a fact based reporting to the opinion based reporting has had numerous consequences – both positive and negative. On the positive side, they have led to the dissemination of any news or event at a lightning speed all around the world. The common man, who used to be the receiver of any news a few years ago, is now empowered to create the content or express his views upon any news event and share them further across various social media platforms. However, this empowerment has a flip side to it as well – and that is the credibility of the user generated content, which is extremely difficult to judge. In this age of information, it is not possible to control the proliferation of the user generated content. No matter how much factual or fabricated the content it, the individuals with vested interests will create it and try to make it in available in the reach of as many people as possible. It is now at the discretion of the people to accept the content or to reject it. And this is where a lot of common people like us err at. At times, we either tend to reject the factual content or to accept the fabricated content. In technical terms, the former is referred to us the type 1 error and the latter is referred to as the type 2 error. Very recently, I personally got to experience both the types of errors.

Then first incident was of a video of a known public figure which surfaced on social media initially and then became a big hit as more and more people shared it. Some news channels also telecasted the video by borrowing it directly from the social media without any verification. And what did it result in? Well, it did malign the image of the person as it intended to, because the video was a trending one for quite a few days. It later turned out that the creator of the video had tampered with the original video and had produced a new video which contained only a certain parts of the original one. This new video had given an entirely new dimension and meaning to the message that the public figure wanted to deliver to the people. In yet another incident, murder of a man belonging to a lower caste in a small town sparked a huge row in the country. The incident was telecasted as a breaking news on a lot of TV channels, citing it as an act of atrocity by the upper caste on the lower caste. The issue soon turned into a political debate, as more and more politicians from the opposition party visited the family of the victim. The blame game began as all the political parties wanted to gain advantage out of the situation. The student unions across various parts of the country carried out rallies and protests. Eventually, it turned out that the murder was committed due to a land dispute between two families, one of which belonged to the upper caste and the other to the lower caste. However, there was no evidence to show that the caste difference between the families had anything to do with the crime. Both these incidents belong to the type 2 error category. 

I now proceed to cite an example of the type 1 error. A friend of mine shared with me a link of a news article that appeared on one of the social media platforms. This article mentioned about a wrongful act committed by a handful of members of a national level group. This group was otherwise deeply respected by the people for all the good that it had done for the country and it indeed deserved all the respect. As I scrolled down the article, there were dozens of comments from the people who had completely rejected the news. They went on to the extent of abusing the content provider for attempting to defame such a highly respected group. However, I decided to probe further into the news before forming any opinion. And on searching for just a few minutes, I could find certain facts which backed the incident that was reported in the article. 

If we try to drill down to the root cause of any of the judgemental errors mentioned in above sections, we can easily identify it to be the lack of complete information. 'A little knowledge is a dangerous thing' - I had read this phrase a long ago in my school days. And it was now that I could really understand the essence of it!

Who is to be blamed for the lack of information? The content creators that include the political powers, the media channels or some extremist groups? Or the content receivers that include us - the common people? Well, in the information age, it is nearly impossible to suppress any content creator, no matter what his or her intentions are. Suppressing one today will lead to the emergence of many tomorrow. The onus is on us - the content receivers. We need to be on guard so that we don't fall into the carefully, but maliciously laid traps by the content creators with vested interests. And the best way of doing this is by being informed, not just partially, but substantially. No generation before us had such an easy access to information. Now, it's our responsibility to be sufficiently aware of any situation before forming any opinion based on whatever primiliminary information we are presented with. This becomes even more critical when we decide to share our opinions with others on the social media, because the malformed opinion is just like a snowball - it gathers mass as it rolls over from one person to the other until, eventually, a truth becomes a lie and a lie becomes a truth.

Let's not be misguided by the biased and prejudiced opinions shared on various media platforms. Let's be prudent enough to research thoroughly before forming our own opinions.

Let's not promote any piece of information which speaks ill of any particular community or faith. Let's observe utmost care while sharing any such information on a social media platform.

Let's not be victimized by the 'divide and rule' policy of self-centric forces operating in the country. Let's foster harmony and subdue hatred. Let's be united!

Ye aazadi

Ye aazadi, kuch adhoori si lagti hai.

Netaaon, afsaron ke bhrashtachaar mei

Asahaayon aur ashakton par ho rahe atyachaar mei

Samaaj mei vyaapt andhvishwas ke prachaar mei

Ye aazadi, kuch adhoori si lagti hai.

2G, CWG aur bofors ke ghotaalon mei

Rajnetaon ke charitra par uthte sawaalon mei

Swiss bank mei pade khaaton mei

Ye aazadi, kuch adhoori si lagti hai.

Gareebi rekha se neeche rehne wali ek-chauthaai jansankhya mei

Har do minute mei hone wali ek bhroon-hatya mei

Tees crore logo mei faili ashiksha mei

Ye aazadi, kuch adhoori si lagti hai.

Dil dehla dene wale aatankwaad mei

Raajneetik bhai-bhatijawaad mei
Hinsa aur arajaktawaad mei

Ye aazadi, kuch adhoori si lagti hai.
Be-imaan karamchaariyon mei,
Rishwatkhor afsaron mei,
Lobhi chikitsakon mei,
Kamchor shikshakon mei,
Bhrasht netaon mei,
Jamakhor vikretaon mei,
Kahin lupt hoti hui si lagti hai.

Aazadi!
Na jaane kyun ye kuch adhoori si lagti hai.   

Be the Change you wish to see in the Government!

"Change is inevitable", "Change is the only constant", "Change is the absolute necessity" - we all have been reading these one-liners since ages. However, how much have we tried to inculcate these lessons in our day-to-day lives? There is very meaningful satire that I came across very recently. It comments upon the intensity of resistance that we all develop on being faced with the era of a fast-changing world. It says, that the only human form on the planet who is happy with the change is a crawling toddler with a wet diaper!
The Father of our nation had once said, "Be the change you wish to see in the world". With due respect to the thoughts and ideas of the great man and with no intention of violating any intellectual property right, I have twisted the saying a bit and renamed my post as 'Be the change you wish to see in the government'. The reasons are obvious. We often hear a huge hue and cry over the malfunctioning of the government and it's agencies. However, many of us fail to understand that 50% of our problems (or even more) can be solved if we work on our own 'self-improvement' at individual level. It is a wrong notion among many of us that individually, we can't bring about any significant change in the country - a country which has a population of over 1.25 billion. Each and every effort counts. Each and every initiative has borne fruits in the past and will do so in the future as well.
Below is a small effort to map the changes that we all wish to see in our governments to the changes that we can bring about in each of us individually and hence contribute to the building of a resilient nation.

Happy reading!


Have you been criticizing the laundering of black money?
Is corruption a constant source of your mental agony?
If that is so, then pay your taxes duly and diligently. 

Do you want the ruling party to tackle the increasing crimes on priority?
Do the incidents of crime against women appear to you to be of utmost gravity?
If that is so, then build up your moral values thoroughly.

Are you agitated about rivers being dumped with sewage loads?
Do you often complain of scattered garbage on the battered roads?
If that is so, then cease from littering the public places.

Do not blame and do not lament,
Be the change you wish to see in the government.

Are you skeptical about driving in the accident-prone area of the city?
Are you often blaming the traffic police for neglecting their duty?
If that is so, then do adhere to the traffic rules genuinely.

Are you unhappy about the increasing red-tapism in the country's bureaucracy?
Do you think that some unhealthy factors pose a big threat to the world's largest democracy?
If that is so, then do make correct decisions and elect honest leaders in the country of millions.

The governments are not formed by some extra-terrestrial aliens,
The leaders of today were once the nation's ordinary citizens.
Some of us might be prospective leaders of tomorrow; let's not be prejudiced, let's have rational options. 

Do not blame and do not lament,
Be the change you wish to see in the government.

One fine morning!

Imagine waking up as a child, one fine morning.
And anticipate the day that lies ahead.
You are care-free; your parents are there,
To take care of your loaf of bread.

You are fearless.
The uncertainties of future do not haunt you anymore.
The only thing that you are scared of,
Is a cockroach crouching behind the wooden door.

You are truthful.

You have not yet been introduced to the world of deception.

"I'm having a headache" is your gravest lie, 

andTo escape going to school is your only intention.

You are boundless.

There is no limit to the heights that your thoughts can ascend.

The only place that you cannot reach,

Is a box of candies kept at a height that your hands just can't comprehend.

You are full of energy.

You can go on playing around effortlessly.

The only time you feel breathless,

Is when you have wept over your broken toy endlessly.

You are ever-cheerful.

What others say about you, does not offend you.

The loudest cry that you have had till date,

Was on the first day of school, when everyone around you was new.

Ah! There is no end to the joys that the childhood brings.

But we no longer are those tiny saplings.

"Change is for betterment", they say,

'We'll keep the child in us alive', is the pledge that we should take each and every day.

My Notion about My Nation!

"Long years ago we made a tryst with destiny, and now the time comes when we shall redeem our pledge, not wholly or in full measure, but very substantially. At the stroke of the midnight hour, when the world sleeps, India will awake to life and freedom."

With these words, Jawaharlal Nehru commenced his speech on the eve of India's independence, towards midnight on 14th August, 1947. In this speech, the first prime minister of India, on behalf of the Constituent Assembly, took the pledge of dedication to the service of India and her people. The service of India meant, according to him, the service of the millions who suffer. It meant the ending of poverty and ignorance and disease and inequality of opportunity. It meant to build up a prosperous, democratic and progressive nation, and to create social, economic and political institutions which will ensure justice and fullness of life to every man and woman.

In this post, I will not discuss the parameters to measure our achievements since independence. I will not discuss how much have we been able to fulfill our dreams - the dreams that our forefathers saw. I will not discuss the success and failure rates of the governments. All such facts and figures are readily available in the media and it is the responisbility of every citizen to be aware of them. Rather, I will discuss what we could have done or what we can do to ensure that we are progressing, both as an individual and as a nation.

It is easy to criticize goverment at every step, to blame government for corruption that we face in our day-to-day lives, to complain about the scams that are revealed every second day, to organize protest march against government policies and so on. But while rendering government accountable for all these issues, we tend to forget that government in itself is no physical entity. Government is a body comprised of people - the legislators, the administrators - they all are chosen from amongst us. So, if we need to get rid of corruption from the country, it is of utmost importance for us to realize that corruption is not in the government. Corruption is in the people. Don't we accept or give bribe in our daily lives - to a policeman, to an agent, to an office-babu? We might ignore these small 'Rs. 100' bribes - credits to our 'let go (chalta hai)' attitude. But, the politician who has recently been caught red-handed while accepting a 'Rs. 1 million' bribe, must have started with a 'Rs. 100' bribe, sometime or the other. The bureaucrat who has been charged of providing a tender without a proper bid, must have bypassed his duties in the past too. This is a fact, hard to digest. But as it is said, the truth is always bitter. If we want a government free of corruption, we need to abolish the corruption from the roots. And at the roots, lie the people. So, the need of this hour is to bring about a change in ourselves.

We often see people complaining about the hygeine and sanitaion issues in India. We feel irritated when we pass by a stinking pile of garbage lying along the road. Again we blame municipality for not taking a proper care of the city. But, is there no way we can help the muicipality in keeping our city clean? Can't we avoid thrwoing away the empty wrapper of Uncle-chips we have just had, on the road? Can't we avoid spitting paan at every possible nook and corner of a public place? Can't we make sure to dispose off our daily household garbage properly? We can. We definitely can. But it is again, the same chalta hai attitude that adds to our misery.

We all stand united when Baba Ramdev starts an agitation aimed to pursue government to bring the black money back into India. We are often found condemning a businessman or a bureaucrat, when he or she is found guilty of having a huge account in the Swiss banks. But what happens when we file our own income tax returns? Why do we restrain ourselves from filling in the genuine details of our income? Why do we show a false proof of our house rent so as to get a better exemption from the tax? Why do we submit fake medical and LTA bills to prevent them from geting included in our taxable income? If we are getting induldged in such activities, aren't we making our contibutions towards the huge sum of black money in the country? Afterall,  the motive behind keeping the money in Swiss banks is the same - Tax evasion. And I am sure that if the tax amount evaded by every middle class individual is summed up, it would itself create an unprecedented scam - worse than any scam that we have ever condemned till date. The taxes we pay are used by the government to run the financial machinery of the country. So, it is a duty (not just a responsibility) of every citizen to pay his/her tax.

I know that pertaining to our huge population, it is not easy to achieve the landmarks that we have set for ourselves. But, collective efforts will definitely bear fruits. Each one of us needs to bring a change in oneself. Let us not blame a third person for our problems.  Let each of us take up responsibilities. And as Mahatma Gandhi rightly said, "Be the change that you want to see in the world". So, let us start the charity from our own home. Let us not think of our huge population as our liability. Let us make it our asset - our biggest asset, because not many countries in the world have such a huge  and young human resource. On the 65th independence day, let us take a pledge that we will play our parts with full endeavour. That way, each one of us will prosper. And when every individual will prosper, the nation will prosper!  

Where the mind is without fear and the head held high;

Where knowledge is free;

Where the world has not been broken up into fragments by narrow domestic walls;

Where words come out from the depth of truth;

Where tireless striving stretches its arms towards perfection;

Where the clear stream of reason has not lost its way into the dreary desert sand of dead habit;

Where the mind is led forward by Thee into ever-widening thought and action;

Into that heaven of freedom, my Father, let my country awake.

STRIKE - Why should the 'aam-aadmi' suffer?

Sometimes small incidents - very small incidents, can cause a deep stir in the otherwise pacific mind. A similar situation overwhelmed me yesterday......
Scene: A private bus, jam-packed with about 70 passengers! Most of them frustrated. Some frustrated over the hike in ticket fare, some frustrated over the over-crowded bus and others frustrated over the unnecessary delay that the bus driver is causing, trying to utilize every inch of the space inside the bus. And the cause of all these frustrations? Just one - a nation wide strike by the trade union. One can witness "unity in diversity" in the bus. There are people of every kind... males-females, rich-poor, young-old, indians-foreigners. Behind this diversity, there is unity - each one of them is frustrated over the poor management. Amongst all this commotion and agitation, a hoarse voice is suddenly heard. I pay attention more keenly!

"arey bhai.... problem to sarkaar se hai na. toh sarkaar se ladai karo. aam aadmi ko kyun pareshaan karte ho?"

For others, this statement might not mean anything much. But for me, it was sufficient to evoke a thought. And the news in today's newspaper justifies my concern.

"The strike called by workers of banks, insurance companies and transport services against the policies of Union government affected normal life in the state on Tuesday...... Medical services were partially affected ....... Since morning, school children and office-goers were clueless and confused due to the non-availability of buses.... nearly 60,000 cheques remained stuck in the banks".

It was the government who was targetted, but the common man became the victim. A perfect "kahin pe nigaahein, kahin pe nishaana" situation!

Now, the question arises- Did this strike manage to strike the eardrums of the government? Or do any such strikes really affect the government, let alone this particular strike? I don't think so. And I'm pretty much confident that most of you would agree with me.

But merely raising questions won't be of any use, unless the root cause of the problem is spotted and some solution is suggested. Is it wrong to carry out such agitations against the government? No, its not. Infact, such movements act as watchguards to the proper functioning of the bureaucrats and the politicians. May be the problem lies in the manner, in which such movements are carried out. To be able to have a better understanding of the issue, lets look across the boundaries of our nation for a moment.

In the far north-east, there lies an island in the pacific ocean. This island has been crowned as the world's third largest economy. This island is also confronted with situations, wherein the governing body fails to acknowledge the problems of some particular group of people. But, the way the people handle such situation is quite mesmerizing. Instead of carrying out strikes and lockouts, the people go to their workplaces as normal. Instead of abandoning their work, they work over-time. They produce in excess. Henceforth, it becomes difficult for the government to manage the inventory properly. The government also becomes handicapped by its resources. However, the comman man is unaffected, because he is not devoid of any day to day services. 

Is this the perfect solution? I dont know. I am no one to judge. But its apparently a better solution. It is the solution where the arrow is quite successful in meeting the bull's eye!